屈臣氏谋双地上市 千亿估值能否唤醒零售巨人？

Core Viewpoint - Watsons is planning for an IPO, potentially in both Hong Kong and the UK, with an estimated valuation exceeding $30 billion (approximately RMB 213.2 billion), making it one of the largest consumer retail IPOs in recent years [1]. Group 1: Company Background and Historical Context - Watsons, with a history of approximately 200 years, originated from the Guangdong Pharmacy founded in 1828 and evolved into a major retail player after being acquired by Li Ka-shing in 1981 [2]. - The company experienced significant growth, particularly in mainland China, where it opened an average of 200 stores annually during a decade-long expansion, becoming the world's largest cosmetics retailer [2]. - The first mention of an IPO for Watsons occurred in 2014, with a valuation estimated between HKD 192 billion to HKD 312 billion [2]. Group 2: Recent Developments and IPO Plans - Watsons has initiated preparatory work for its IPO, aiming to raise $2 billion or more, with a dual listing in Hong Kong and the UK to cater to different investor demands [5]. - The company operates over 16,900 stores across 31 markets globally, with a reported revenue of HKD 98.84 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [5]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the retail business's EBITDA reached approximately $1 billion, growing by 12.5% year-on-year, and suggests that the IPO could unlock value for the company [5]. Group 3: Challenges in the Chinese Market - Despite global growth, Watsons faces challenges in the Chinese market, where revenue declined by 3% to HKD 6.666 billion in the first half of 2025, marking it as the only market with negative growth [7]. - The company has struggled to adapt to the competitive landscape, particularly with the rise of e-commerce and new beauty retail formats that appeal to younger consumers [8]. - Watsons has been criticized for its outdated sales tactics and product offerings, which do not align with the preferences of the younger demographic [8]. Group 4: Strategic Transformation Efforts - In response to market challenges, Watsons is undergoing a leadership overhaul and strategic shifts, including plans to open 500 new stores, focusing on lower-tier cities [9]. - The company is also enhancing its online order fulfillment capabilities and improving customer experience by reducing aggressive sales tactics and introducing popular brands [9]. - The IPO is seen as a crucial opportunity for Watsons to secure resources for its strategic adjustments and business transformation [10]. Group 5: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The timing of Watsons' IPO aligns with a recovering Hong Kong IPO market, which has seen a significant increase in new stock financing [11]. - The dual listing strategy is expected to enhance liquidity and attract diverse investors, particularly given the company's strong presence in Europe [11]. - The success of the IPO will be pivotal for Watsons in maintaining growth in Europe while regaining consumer trust in China, which will significantly impact its future valuation [11].