终端需求难有实质好转 预计12月国内贸易企业柴油库容率或继续降低

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices exhibited a downward trend in late November, leading to a cautious market sentiment and low purchasing willingness among traders [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - As of November 27, 2025, the domestic refined oil trade companies' diesel inventory accounted for 29.93% of storage capacity, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from mid-November, but an increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The retail price of refined oil in China was adjusted downward on November 24, with the current cycle's crude oil change rate remaining in negative territory, contributing to a sustained cautious market sentiment [3] - Despite tight diesel spot resources in some regions, the overall demand for diesel did not show significant improvement due to lower temperatures and decreased logistics activity [3] Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The average theoretical profit for sales of local refined diesel was 1,223 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.24% from mid-November, while the theoretical profit for main diesel sales was 1,003 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.53% [5] - The theoretical profit for local refined gasoline was 2,026 CNY/ton, down 3.91% from mid-November, and for main gasoline sales, it was 1,863 CNY/ton, down 0.90% [5] - The narrowing price difference between wholesale and retail prices has not significantly boosted gasoline demand, which remains in the off-season, affecting sales at private gas stations [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term market expectations suggest that the potential for a ceasefire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may pressure oil prices, while expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar could provide support for oil prices [5] - It is anticipated that international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in early December, with the ongoing negative crude oil change rate and fluctuating prices unlikely to boost the domestic refined oil market [6] - Diesel demand may be impacted by further decreases in temperatures and potential rain and snow in northern regions, leading to expectations of a continued decrease in diesel inventory levels [6]