白银价格创历史新高 今年涨幅已超90%

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supply-demand dynamics in the market [2]. Group 1: Price Movement - As of December 1, during Asian trading hours, the London spot silver price hit $57.7 per ounce, marking an increase of approximately 2.3% [2]. - Year-to-date, international silver prices have risen over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a heightened market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a probability of 87.4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [2]. - The potential appointment of a dovish candidate, Harker, as the next Federal Reserve Chair has further bolstered confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A persistent supply shortage has been noted due to declining silver production in recent years, with global exchange silver inventories at nearly a decade low [2]. - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating the tightness in the spot market [2]. - In the leasing market, short-term silver leasing rates have surged, highlighting the scarcity of silver supply [2]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - The current gold-to-silver price ratio stands at approximately 75:1, significantly higher than the 20-year average of 60:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued within the precious metals sector [2]. - Bank of America has raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce [2].