摩根士丹利中国邢自强：以国企分红充实社保，财政资源要从“投资基建”转向“投资于人”

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the potential for a bull market in A-shares as global capital is expected to flow into the market [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, emphasized the need to improve the social security system and adopt a prudent fiscal strategy to address China's structural issues of high savings and low consumption [3] - Xing proposed activating state-owned assets as a clear "opening up" path to alleviate debt concerns, suggesting that more state assets be allocated to the social security system to enhance returns through market operations [3] Group 2 - The discussion pointed out the historical bias in resource allocation towards supply-side investments, particularly in infrastructure, which are now showing signs of saturation and declining returns [3] - The future direction of investment is suggested to shift from "investing in things" to "investing in people," reallocating resources from infrastructure to strengthen social insurance and welfare networks [3] - Xing projected that if these reforms are implemented, the proportion of household consumption in GDP could rise from below 40% to 45%, potentially leading to a historic breakthrough of over $10 trillion in consumer spending [3]