Kalshi Traders Price Bearish Odds on $100K Bitcoin Rebound in 2025

Market Overview - Bitcoin price rebounded 17%, moving from lows near $82,000 on November 21 to graze the $93,000 level on November 28 [1] - Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $221 million in net inflows between Nov. 25 and Nov. 28 [1] - Despite a modest $74 million net-positive session, Bitcoin failed to advance beyond the key $95,000 resistance [1] Institutional Activity - BlackRock experienced a significant outflow of $117 million, indicating a cautious stance among institutional investors [1] - Strategy Inc. made no purchases last week, ending a 14-week buying streak, with its last acquisition being 8,178 BTC for $836 million on Nov. 17 [2] Market Sentiment - Prediction markets show a decline in optimism, with odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 dropping 11% and odds of closing below $80,000 rising 8% to 36% [4] - Kalshi is facing a lawsuit over market manipulation, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders [3] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is attempting to rebuild structure after a recovery from the $82,705 SAR cluster, currently pinned under $92,971 [5] - Momentum signals are improving, with the MACD line crossing into positive territory for the first time since early November [6] - A decisive daily close above $95,000 could re-establish bullish dominance, while failure to hold the $90,000 support risks triggering a correction [7]