JonesResearch Targets $3B in Annualized Revenue for The GEO Group (GEO) by 2026, Driven by Contracts, Monitoring

Core Viewpoint - The GEO Group Inc. is identified as a promising investment opportunity, with a projected trajectory towards over $3 billion in annualized revenue by 2026, driven by new contracts and monitoring services [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, GEO Group reported revenue of $682 million, an increase from $603 million in Q3 2024. The net income for Q3 was $174 million, or $1.24 per diluted share, significantly up from $26 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, in Q3 2024 [3]. - The company provided a full-year 2025 revenue guidance of approximately $2.6 billion [3]. Revenue Projections - JonesResearch has revised its price target for GEO Group to $37 from $50, while maintaining a Buy rating. The firm anticipates that GEO will achieve over $3 billion in annualized revenue by 2026, primarily due to upcoming contracts and monitoring services [1][2]. ISAP Contract Insights - The Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) 5 contract requires GEO to reduce pricing to remain competitive, which may affect profit margins as the company shifts towards more intensive, higher-cost monitoring devices. The government’s Request for Proposal for the ISAP contract indicates participant counts of 361,000 in year one and 465,000 in year two, with the contract extending into 2027 [4]. - GEO expects the ramp-up for the ISAP program to begin in early 2026 [4]. Company Overview - The GEO Group Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, involved in designing, financing, developing, and supporting services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers across the US, Australia, South Africa, and the UK [5].