智通财经网·2025-12-01 06:13Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is rated "overweight" by Guotai Junan Securities, with an expectation of increased industry concentration and high-quality development as key trends for future growth [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.69% week-on-week but an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [1] - Total steel production was 8.557 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 5.8 thousand tons, while total inventory decreased to 14.01 million tons, down 320 thousand tons [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The report anticipates that steel demand will stabilize, with a notable reduction in the negative impact from the real estate sector, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is expected to grow steadily [3] Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The average gross profit for rebar was 91 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a gross profit of -47 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.4 CNY/ton [2] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The expectation is that iron ore production will accelerate, leading to a gradual easing of cost pressures in the steel industry, which may help restore the industry's profitability [2] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan for the steel industry that emphasizes production reduction policies to support advanced enterprises and phase out inefficient capacities [3] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply adjustment is beginning to take shape [3] Group 4: Recommended Companies - Companies recommended include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Shougang, and low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4] - Other recommendations include competitive advantage firms like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co., as well as high-barrier material companies such as Jiuli Special Materials and Xianglou New Materials [4] - The report also highlights upstream resource companies like Hebei Steel Resources and Erdos as having long-term growth potential [4]