Experts doubt China will lift bitcoin mining ban despite uptick and excess energy supply

Core Insights - A mild increase in bitcoin mining activity in China has led to discussions about the potential easing of restrictions by Beijing, although experts believe the likelihood of lifting the mining ban remains low [1][6]. Group 1: Bitcoin Mining Market Share - China's bitcoin mining market share by hash rate increased from 13.75% in Q1 2025 to 14.06% in the current quarter, positioning it as the third-largest bitcoin mining country after the US and Russia [2]. - Following a complete halt in bitcoin mining in July 2021 due to regulatory crackdowns, China's hash rate rebounded to 22.29% by September 2021, according to data from the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) [3][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The uptick in bitcoin mining activity coincides with calls from scholars for Beijing to reconsider its strict mining ban, which has been justified by the government as necessary to maintain economic and financial order [6]. - The Chinese government has intensified its crackdown on cryptocurrency-related businesses, citing concerns over disruption to economic stability and potential criminal activities [6]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Utilization - Guojun He, an economics professor at the University of Hong Kong, proposed that China could leverage crypto mining to utilize its excess renewable energy, which has seen oversupply rates exceeding 10% for solar and 15% for wind energy in certain regions [7][8]. - Integrating crypto mining into the power grid could help absorb surplus energy, stabilize grid operations, and provide economic benefits [8].