下游生产利润承压 2026年丙烯或持续震荡偏弱

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the recent surge in propylene futures prices, with a peak reaching 6013.0 yuan, and the subsequent analysis from various institutions regarding future market trends and price expectations [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 1, propylene futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract reported at 5962.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.69% [1]. - New Lake Futures indicates that short-term propylene prices will follow fluctuations in raw material prices, noting a decrease in overall propylene load and a slowdown in upstream company shipments [1]. - The current spot price for propylene in East China is 5950 yuan per ton, while in Shandong it is 6000 yuan per ton, with downstream production profits under pressure [1]. Group 2: Future Price Expectations - Huatai Futures predicts that propylene prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations through 2026, with the fundamental market conditions remaining under pressure [1]. - The refinery profits are expected to remain compressed, and the profit margins for PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) are also gradually shrinking, indicating limited short-term downward space [1]. - The anticipated increase in propylene demand from downstream production in 2026 is expected to exceed the production capacity, particularly concentrated in Q4, while the first half of the year is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance [1].