欧佩克+踩下增产“急刹车”、特朗普威胁对委动武 油价“忽略”供应过剩前景走高

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ plans to maintain its production pause in the first quarter of next year despite ongoing weak international oil prices and signs of oversupply in the global oil market [1][2][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to pause production increases for three months, reflecting expectations of seasonal market weakness [2][3] - The organization previously accelerated the restoration of oil production in April, surprising the market, to regain market share from competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [2] Group 2: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices have been under pressure, with Brent crude rising by 2.29% to $63.81 per barrel and WTI crude increasing by 2.36% nearing $60 per barrel [1][2] - The market has experienced a fourth consecutive month of price declines due to supply-demand imbalances and expectations of future oversupply [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. threats against Venezuela, have provided some support for oil prices [3][4] - Trump's recent statements regarding military action against Venezuelan drug traffickers have raised speculation about potential escalations in U.S. military involvement [4][5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - Analysts predict a record oversupply of oil in 2026, with major firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecasting further price declines [3] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including U.S. actions against Venezuela and potential changes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could significantly impact global oil supply dynamics [5][6]