【央行圆桌汇】全球货币政策分化加剧：美欧或转向宽松 新兴市场仍处紧缩（2025年12月1日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Kevin Hassett is viewed as the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with a 72% chance of being nominated by President Trump, as he aligns with Trump's proposed interest rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that most of the twelve districts report little change in economic activity, with a decline in overall consumer spending attributed to government shutdown impacts and rising costs in manufacturing and retail due to tariffs [1] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, indicating potential further easing if economic recovery remains weak [2][4] Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Fed Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, citing weak labor market data, while warning that upcoming economic reports may complicate January's policy decisions [2] - New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly both express support for a potential rate cut in December, with concerns about a sudden deterioration in the job market [3] - Fed's repurchase operations on November 28 received bids totaling $2.44 billion, indicating a stable banking reserve environment and low reliance on Fed liquidity tools [3] European Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) acknowledges high financial stability vulnerabilities in the Eurozone, influenced by trade uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [6] - ECB President Lagarde states that current interest rates are appropriate, but warns of potential inflationary pressures if U.S. tariffs are imposed or supply chains are disrupted [5] - The ECB's financial stability report highlights risks from U.S. fiscal deficits and rising debt servicing costs, which could undermine the safety of U.S. Treasury securities and weaken the dollar [6] Market Observations - Barclays economists predict a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, with internal divisions expected among officials regarding the extent of future cuts [8] - JPMorgan economists also anticipate rate cuts in December and January, influenced by recent statements from key Fed officials [8] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that Japan's central bank may delay rate hikes due to political factors, despite ongoing inflation pressures [9]