智通财经网·2025-12-01 09:11Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented a new quota management system for cobalt exports, setting annual export limits for 2026 and 2027 at 96,600 tons each, primarily allocated to companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Glencore, while local smelters receive no direct quotas [1][2]. Group 1: Cobalt Quota and Supply - The new quota system replaces the previous cobalt export ban, with 87,000 tons designated as basic quotas and 9,600 tons as ARECOMS strategic quotas [2]. - The global cobalt raw material supply is expected to decrease significantly, with projections indicating a supply of only 200,000 tons by 2025, while global cobalt consumption is anticipated to reach 221,000 tons and 231,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a rigid shortage [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Price Dynamics - The inventory of cobalt products is continuously depleting, with China's cobalt chloride inventory days dropping from 46 days in April to 39 days currently, and the inventory of intermediate products at downstream smelters decreasing from 45,000 tons to 17,000 tons over five months [4]. - Cobalt product prices are currently inverted, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, a 306% increase, indicating potential for further price adjustments as raw material inventories are consumed [5]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement tender, marking the first large-scale cobalt purchase by the U.S. since the Cold War, with awards expected in early February 2026 [6].