加息预期继续推动 日债收益率再触历史高点

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with yields reaching historical highs due to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, particularly affecting the 2-year and 10-year bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 1.025%, marking the first time it has surpassed 1% since 2006 [1]. - The 10-year bond yield increased by 6.1 basis points to 1.871%, both yields reaching their highest levels since June 2008 [1]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank will weigh the pros and cons of raising interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting, signaling a potential rate hike [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Impact - The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.55 against the dollar, following concerns over the yen's depreciation, which had previously approached historic lows near 158 yen per dollar [3]. - The depreciation of the yen is raising concerns about its negative impact on consumer spending, prompting the government and central bank to be vigilant [4]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of a weak yen and expectations of significant economic stimulus provides favorable conditions for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The rapid rise in bond yields is attributed to increasing expectations that the government's economic stimulus plan may be larger than previously anticipated, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's long-term fiscal situation [4]. - Changes in the supply-demand dynamics of the government bond market are making yields more susceptible to upward pressure, especially with the Bank of Japan's plans to abandon its yield curve control framework by March 2024 [4]. - There is growing reliance on foreign investors for purchasing Japanese government bonds, which may lead to a more cautious stance from these investors amid concerns over fiscal deterioration due to new stimulus measures [4].