降息预期提升，金价震荡偏强

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of last Friday (November 28), London spot gold closed at $4,218.55 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $154.27 per ounce since November 21, representing a rise of 3.80% [1] - The price of gold fluctuated last week, reaching a low of $4,039.89 per ounce on Monday and a high of $4,226.80 per ounce on Friday [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and tensions between the U.S. and China, have bolstered gold's safe-haven appeal [1][10] - The current weak U.S. dollar index and low U.S. Treasury yields have limited the negative impact on gold prices [1][10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September PPI showed a mild rebound, with core PPI rising 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, also below the forecast of 2.7% [2] - Inflation expectations have decreased, with 2-year and 10-year TIPS inflation expectations falling by 17 basis points and 8 basis points to 2.43% and 2.24%, respectively [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to over 80%, supported by comments from several Fed officials advocating for a rate cut [3][4] - The Fed has entered a quiet period ahead of the December meeting, with market focus shifting to the upcoming U.S. September PCE report, which is a key inflation indicator for the Fed [4] Group 4: Tether's Influence on Gold - Tether, a major player in the cryptocurrency market, has emerged as a significant buyer in the gold market, holding 116 tons of gold valued at approximately $14 billion, making it one of the largest non-central bank holders of gold [9] - Tether's purchases accounted for about 2% of global gold demand in the third quarter, indicating its substantial impact on market dynamics [9] Group 5: Long-term Gold Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut cycle, increasing geopolitical uncertainties, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [10] - The demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise amid challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and ongoing global geopolitical tensions [10]