【固收】震荡中寻锚——利率债2026年投资策略展望

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity tools in 2025 will continue to be optimized, with a focus on stabilizing the funding environment, particularly around the end of March when the funding situation is expected to shift from tight to loose [3]. Group 1: Market Overview - In the primary market, the net financing scale of interest rate bonds is expected to grow by nearly 40% in 2025, with the largest contribution from government bonds, followed by local government bonds, and an earlier issuance rhythm [4]. - In the secondary market, the 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9%, exhibiting an M-shaped trend with alternating upward and downward movements throughout the year [4]. Group 2: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - The fundamental outlook for 2026 suggests a move towards "supply-demand balance," with expected improvements in consumption, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment growth compared to 2025 [5]. - On the policy front, fiscal policy is anticipated to remain proactive, with a budget deficit target of 4% and a special bond issuance scale of 1.5 trillion yuan, alongside a new special bond quota of 4.4 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side for interest rate bonds in 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025, with a net financing amount of approximately 14.3 trillion yuan, including 6.5 trillion yuan in government bonds and 5.5 trillion yuan in new local government bonds [6]. - Demand for bonds may be slightly weaker in 2026, with banks facing operational pressures and public funds focusing on stability in their liabilities [6]. Group 4: Economic and Policy Changes - Changes in the economic environment, policy adjustments, and overseas liquidity tightening are anticipated to exceed expectations [7].