美国准备动手 黄金开涨！

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Last Friday, due to a data center failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, spot gold experienced significant volatility, ultimately closing up 1.49% at $4,218.77, and continuing to rise to around $4,248 today [1] - Silver showed remarkable performance, with spot silver surging over 6% last Friday to surpass $56, reaching a historical high, while the Shanghai silver night market also rose over 5%, breaking through the 13,000 yuan mark [1] Group 2: Japanese Bond Market - Japan's 3-month government bond yield surged over 34%, leading to a significant drop in government bond prices, while the 10-year bond yield increased by 5 basis points to 1.85% [2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated a strong signal for potential interest rate hikes in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, causing market speculation about a rate increase on December 18-19 [2] - Analysts suggest that Ueda's comments appear to prepare the market for a December rate hike, and any failure to act could lead to criticism regarding the Bank's communication strategy [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to rise slightly from 48.7 to 49.0, indicating continued contraction but potential support from improved employment and inventory factors [3] - The core PCE price index for September is anticipated to show a slight month-over-month decrease to 0.22%, with a year-over-year growth rate expected to remain steady at 2.9%, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook [4] Group 4: Market Expectations - Both the ISM Manufacturing PMI and core PCE data are seen as supportive of further interest rate cuts, with market expectations potentially rising to 90% or even 100% if the data does not show strength [5] Group 5: U.S. Stock Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs noted that as volatility decreases and market breadth improves, the outlook for the U.S. stock market appears clearer heading into December [6] - HSBC forecasts that the S&P 500 index will reach 7,500 by December 2026, driven by increased AI capital expenditure amid an ongoing AI arms race [6]