中国增长进入人和物的乘法时代

Group 1 - The core idea is the transition from additive growth focused on expanding investment scale to multiplicative development that combines investment in people and material, aiming to enhance total factor productivity (TFP) [1][3] - The investment policy logic is shifting towards a new development paradigm driven by the synergy of human capital and material capital, as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] - The relationship between capital (K) and labor (L) is evolving, with K now encompassing broader forms of capital, including digital infrastructure and intelligent equipment, while L includes various dimensions such as skill levels and innovation capabilities [2][3] Group 2 - Path one emphasizes developing new quality productivity by effectively investing in both material and human aspects, focusing on high-return capital with technological spillover effects [6][8] - Path two focuses on releasing the "quality dividend" by upgrading human capital to extend the demographic dividend, with significant contributions from labor quality improvements to economic growth [10][11] - Path three advocates for establishing a synchronous mechanism to ensure the resonance between material capital and human capital, enhancing TFP through coordinated upgrades [12][13]