鲍威尔辞职传言再起 接任者已选定？专家：美联储主席头号候选人“伪装得很亲特朗普” 会维护表面的独立性

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding Jerome Powell's resignation are unfounded, with experts stating the probability of his voluntary departure is zero, as he is expected to complete his term [2][4][15] Group 1: Rumors and Market Reactions - A rumor about Powell's imminent resignation circulated on social media, but there is no official evidence supporting this claim from the Federal Reserve or the White House [2][4] - The market's speculation about a leadership change is driven by hopes for interest rate cuts, reflecting a disconnect between market expectations and the current reality of the Federal Reserve's internal divisions [7][15] Group 2: Potential Successors - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is the leading candidate to succeed Powell, with a 74% probability of nomination according to Polymarket [8][11] - Other candidates include Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Reed, but Hassett is favored due to his alignment with Trump's economic policies [8][11] Group 3: Hassett's Economic Stance - Hassett is expected to maintain the Federal Reserve's perceived independence while potentially adopting a more dovish stance on interest rates compared to Powell [11][15] - He has publicly supported rate cuts, arguing that current economic risks lean more towards preventing recession rather than combating inflation [11][12] Group 4: Implications of Hassett's Potential Appointment - If Hassett is appointed, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will not undergo extreme policy shifts but will seek a balance between accommodating Trump's demands for rate cuts and maintaining economic stability [15] - Concerns exist regarding Hassett's independence, as his close ties to Trump may lead to perceptions of reduced autonomy for the Federal Reserve [13][14]