五矿证券杨诚笑：2026年碳酸锂市场预计步入“紧平衡” 中国或将成全球最大锂供应国

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference successfully held in Chengdu, Sichuan, focused on the development path and collaboration mechanisms of the lithium battery industry under the energy transition context, with over 400 participants from the global lithium industry [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Outlook - The lithium market is expected to gradually stabilize in 2025, characterized by "super resilience" in supply and a bottoming out of prices, with structural highlights in demand [5] - By 2026, global lithium supply is undergoing structural adjustments, with significant contributions expected from domestic Chinese sources, African lithium mines, and Argentine salt lakes, potentially increasing China's share of global lithium supply from 24% to 28% [5][6] - The supply growth in Chile is heavily reliant on a single project by SQM, while Argentina's capacity will peak between 2025 and 2026 before slowing down significantly [5] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Energy storage is emerging as the "second engine" for lithium battery growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% over the next decade, indicating substantial room for market expansion [6] - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China may slow down due to policy changes, while Europe is expected to maintain stable growth supported by new product cycles [6] - The commercial vehicle sector faces challenges, with anticipated growth rates declining due to policy rollbacks and limitations in electric heavy truck applications [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The lithium carbonate market is predicted to enter a tight balance phase in 2026, leading to an average price level higher than that of 2025, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and cost structures [6] - The conference highlighted the importance of professional and forward-looking research insights in guiding the lithium industry through cycles and restructuring competitive landscapes [7] - The company aims to leverage its central enterprise background and integrated financial services to provide strategic guidance for capital allocation and industry development, positioning itself as a catalyst for the lithium industry's transition to high-quality growth [7]