2025 年最后一个月开启，本周需关注这些要点

Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite Index ended a seven-month winning streak, while the S&P 500 Index is just 1% away from its all-time high [1] - Despite a positive performance in the last five trading days of November, the overall month was volatile, with concerns over AI bubble affecting major stocks [1] - Notable declines included Meta down 13%, Nvidia down approximately 8%, and Oracle down nearly 30% [1] - Google was an exception, with a strong earnings report and a reported multi-billion dollar AI chip deal with Meta, leading to a 20% increase in its stock price [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Investors are focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, currently estimated at 86.9% for a 25 basis point reduction [2] - The Federal Reserve has entered a "quiet period" ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for December 9-10 [2] - Reports indicate that the Trump administration is nearing a decision on the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett as a leading candidate [2][3] Corporate Earnings and Economic Data - Upcoming earnings reports include Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and Five Below, along with tech companies like Salesforce and CrowdStrike [3] - Economic data releases this week will include reports on manufacturing and service activities, as well as the ADP monthly private sector employment report [3] Wall Street's Optimism for 2026 - Wall Street strategists are optimistic about the stock market's future, with JPMorgan predicting the S&P 500 Index could rise from 6,849 points to 7,500 points by the end of 2026, a nearly 10% increase [5] - If the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, the index could potentially exceed 8,000 points [5] - HSBC and Deutsche Bank share similar bullish forecasts for the S&P 500, both linking their predictions to AI-related transactions [6] Market Volatility and Future Expectations - The current market volatility is seen as a "toll" that investors pay on the road to achieving substantial long-term returns [7] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations as it transitions from AI innovation to a more efficient and profitable business environment [6]