长城基金：轮动提速整固蓄力，后市关注三大方向

Market Overview - In November, major A-share indices experienced varying degrees of adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67%, the ChiNext Index down 4.23%, and the STAR 50 Index down 6.24% [1] - The overall market activity has cooled, with the average daily trading volume across A-shares decreasing by 249.2 billion compared to the previous month [1] - The primary reason for the market adjustment is attributed to changes in overseas expectations leading to increased risk aversion, rather than an actual deterioration in liquidity conditions [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as banking, oil and petrochemicals, and textiles performed well, while electronics, automotive, and computer industries lagged behind [1] - The adjustment in the A-share market aligns with global market trends, primarily due to concerns that expectations for overseas liquidity easing may not materialize in December, alongside fears of a bubble and risks in the AI sector [2] Investment Sentiment - The fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies have become a key variable affecting market sentiment, with recent comments from Fed officials increasing uncertainty [2] - The market has shown signs of recovery as expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in December have been somewhat restored, leading to a gradual warming of global capital markets [2] Future Outlook - The short-term market is characterized by a "waiting for profit-driven" pattern, with the potential for upward movement still present [3] - The current valuation levels are constraining upward momentum, with the median PE ratio for A-shares at the 84th percentile and the median PB ratio at the 85.5th percentile over the past three years [3] - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: low-crowding sectors within technology, opportunities in global pricing resources like gold and copper, and manufacturing sectors benefiting from a restart in overseas credit cycles [3]