美国关税改写铜市逻辑！大宗商品巨头惊呼：铜市 “超级行情” 来了

Group 1 - Mercuria Energy Group's metal business head, Kostas Bintas, has reiterated a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning that the influx of copper shipments to the U.S. may lead to inventory depletion in other regions [1] - Recent trading activity has been influenced by uncertainties surrounding future tariff policies, prompting traders to increase copper exports to the U.S. and target high copper premiums on the COMEX [1][2] - Bintas indicated that the resumption of profitable U.S. arbitrage trading could result in copper supply shortages in other regions, leading to further price increases [1] Group 2 - Bintas noted that the LME copper price, which is near historical peaks, still has room for upward movement, predicting that if current trends continue, supply tightness will worsen and copper prices will rise further [2] - Since Trump's tariff announcement in July, U.S. copper import growth has slowed, but Mercuria expects imports to increase again in the coming months, potentially nearing record levels in Q1 2026 [2] - Bintas's bullish forecast reflects a broader market expectation for long-term copper price increases, with competitors also warning of supply gaps due to mining disruptions [4] Group 3 - The market is becoming increasingly aware that despite weak demand, copper resources continue to flow to the U.S., which may lead to supply shortages in China and other markets [4] - The role of China as a marginal buyer has shifted to the U.S., with traders driving up premiums for copper deliverable on COMEX contracts [5] - Bintas anticipates that the current high premiums will eventually be accepted by Asian buyers, predicting that the market dynamics will lead to a "dual-track market" where LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange prices will respond to U.S. market changes [7]