日本加息预期引发全球市场震荡 风险资产普遍承压 比特币一度跌破8.5万美元

Group 1 - The global financial markets are experiencing turbulence due to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Japanese government bond futures have weakened significantly, with market expectations for a rate hike in December rising to approximately 80% from less than 25% a week prior [1] - The yield on Japan's 2-year government bonds has surpassed 1% for the first time in 17 years, while the 10-year yield reached its highest point since 2008 [1] Group 2 - Despite the hawkish outlook from Japan, U.S. Treasury yields remain around 4% due to strong expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] - The market anticipates an 80% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, influenced by President Trump's potential nomination of a more aggressive candidate for Fed Chair [2] - U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, the S&P 500 down 0.52%, and the Dow down 0.5%, while safe-haven assets like gold and the yen strengthened [2] Group 3 - Japan's prolonged low-interest rates have been a key component of global arbitrage trading, with investors borrowing yen at low costs to invest in higher-yielding risk assets [3] - Concerns about the potential for rapid unwinding of these arbitrage trades have been exacerbated by the Bank of Japan's recent statements [3]