Jiang Nan Shi Bao·2025-12-01 14:57Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently driven by two main themes: "technology growth" and "global inflation trading," highlighting a structural and logical selection of funds between future-oriented investments in computing power and current bets on scarce resources and price increases [1][2]. Technology Growth Main Line: From AI Phones to 6G - The consumer electronics sector, particularly AI phone stocks, has seen significant gains, with companies like Tianyin Holdings and Furong Technology hitting their daily price limits due to the upcoming AI phone launch in collaboration with ByteDance and ZTE [1][2]. - The commercial aerospace sector is benefiting from policy support, with the establishment of a Commercial Space Administration, positively impacting the entire industry chain from rocket manufacturing to satellite development [2]. - The domestic computing power and semiconductor sectors are also performing well, driven by a focus on "technological self-reliance," with high-end chips and data center support systems gaining attention amid external restrictions and internal policy support [2][3]. - The commonality in technology growth is clear: defined industry trends, concentrated policy support, and measurable long-term potential, although short-term surges often depend on event catalysts and emotional resonance [3]. Global Inflation Trading Main Line: Non-Ferrous and Precious Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen the largest gains, driven by soaring international commodity prices, with spot silver and copper reaching historical highs due to supply crises and interest rate cut expectations [3]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are also performing strongly, with their safe-haven and anti-inflation properties being revalued amid global inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - This type of market behavior is characterized by strong explosive power and steep short-term slopes, but its sustainability is often less than that driven by industry trends [3]. Institutional Views: Slow Bullish Base, Expectation for Year-End and Spring Rally - Multiple brokerages maintain a positive outlook for the market from year-end to early next year, with consensus and divergence present [4]. - Galaxy Securities predicts that the A-share market will remain upward in December, suggesting attention to upcoming economic meetings and industry conferences for thematic opportunities [4]. - Industrial opportunities are expected to emerge from the upcoming central economic work conference and the Federal Reserve's meetings, with technology growth seen as a key driver for market movements [4][5]. - The consensus among institutions acknowledges the bottom lifting and structural opportunities, while remaining cautious about the market's height and rhythm [5]. Conclusion: Anchoring on Industry Trends and Depth of Capital Consensus - In a slow bullish environment, while indices may not rise sharply every day, clear structural opportunities will repeatedly emerge [6]. - The key is to identify which upward trends have substantive logic and which are merely riding the wave, with the ultimate market height determined by the thickness of industry trends and the depth of capital consensus [6].