2026年中国经济怎么看、怎么干？刘世锦、李扬、蔡昉、杨瑞龙最新发声

Core Insights - The annual China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) highlighted key recommendations for China's economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and innovation to stimulate domestic vitality [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations - Liu Shijun suggested that the consumption share of GDP should increase by 1 percentage point annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan, viewing this as a "hard task" for stabilizing growth [5][6] - The CMF report proposed a cross-cycle target for 2026, aiming for a real GDP growth of 4.5%-5%, a CPI target of 1%-3%, and a nominal GDP growth of over 5% [2] - Li Yang identified four financial factors influencing economic operations post-2026: changes in social financing structure, declining interest rates, new opportunities in capital markets, and a new paradigm in monetary policy [3][4] Group 2: Employment and Income Distribution - Cai Fang emphasized the need for a coordinated approach to promote employment, increase income, and stabilize expectations, proposing a "five combinations" strategy [7][8] - The report highlighted the importance of improving income distribution and increasing the proportion of labor remuneration in primary distribution, as well as enhancing public services [8][9] Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - Yang Ruilong noted that despite short-term economic pressures, the long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, with potential growth driven by market-oriented technological innovation and deep urbanization [9][10] - The focus should be on both qualitative stability and reasonable quantitative growth, with an emphasis on building a modern industrial system through technological innovation and institutional reform [10]