US stocks and crypto are in the red to start December, the biggest stock surprises of 2025

Market Overview - The major indices, including the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500, are experiencing downward momentum at the start of the week, with the NASDAQ down approximately 0.8% and the Dow and S&P 500 both down about 0.6% [3][4]. - AI chip stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD are all down more than 1%, with Broadcom nearing a 2% decline [5]. - The cryptocurrency market is facing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below the $85,000 threshold for the first time in a while, down about 6% in intraday trading and nearly 22% over the past month [6][7][30]. Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales during the holiday shopping season have shown surprisingly solid results, with Black Friday sales excluding autos rising by 4.1%, surpassing last year's growth of 3.4% [14]. - Consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, marking a 9.1% year-over-year increase, and Cyber Monday is expected to see spending of $14.2 billion [15][18]. - Despite an affordability crisis, consumers are actively seeking deals, particularly in categories like furniture, electronics, and apparel [18][21]. Consumer Behavior Insights - The current consumer landscape is characterized by a "K-shaped" recovery, where high-end consumers continue to spend while low-end consumers face pressure [21][23]. - Retailers that can offer attractive value propositions are likely to perform better, as consumers are concentrating their spending on these companies [22][23]. - The mixed performance of retail stocks indicates that while some companies are benefiting from consumer spending, others are struggling [9]. Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - The recent downgrade of USDT's stability by S&P Global has contributed to negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, with warnings about potential under-collateralization of Bitcoin [10]. - Companies like Robinhood and Argo Blockchain have also seen significant declines, with Argo down over 40% in the past month [8][30]. - The overall risk-off sentiment among investors is leading to a shift towards traditional safe havens like gold and silver, which are experiencing price increases [30]. AI and Technology Sector Outlook - The AI investment boom is expected to continue, with strong revenue growth anticipated for hyperscalers, although there are concerns about a potential bubble [35][39]. - Companies outside the "MAG 7" (Meta, Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are also expected to benefit from increased AI-related capital expenditures, with a focus on broader sector exposure [52]. - The outlook for earnings growth remains positive, with expectations of double-digit growth across various sectors, including financials and industrials [40][52].