Treasuries Lead Global Bond Selloff Amid Corporate Supply Surge

Group 1 - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by eight basis points to 4.09%, while shorter maturities rose by at least four basis points [3] - Merck & Co. announced an eight-part bond offering, contributing to a projected $40 billion in corporate bond supply for December, with approximately half expected this week [3] - The total corporate bond supply for the year through November reached $1.55 trillion, indicating robust market conditions [3] Group 2 - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week are high, despite concerns from some policymakers about persistent inflation above the 2% target [4] - Economists at Bank of America have resumed forecasting a Fed rate cut next week, influenced by recent employment data showing an increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 4.5% [4] - A private-sector gauge of US manufacturing unexpectedly declined, impacting the Treasury selloff and indicating potential economic weakness [5] Group 3 - Traders are assigning an 80% probability to the Fed lowering benchmark rates next week, influenced by President Trump's decision on the next central bank leader [7] - The market is reacting to the prospect of rate cuts, with US yields fluctuating around 4% after previously dropping below that level [6]