What To Expect From Bitcoin Price In December 2025

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price performance in December is under scrutiny following a significant drop of over 17% in November, raising concerns about whether the recent bounce to $80,000 was a true bottom [1][3]. Seasonal Performance - Historically, December has not been a strong month for Bitcoin, with a long-term average return of 8.42% and a median return of only 1.69%. The last four years have shown mixed results, with three of those years ending negatively [3]. - The performance in November has added to the caution, as Bitcoin finished the month significantly lower, breaking its usual seasonal trend [3][4]. ETF Flows - November saw a net outflow of $3.48 billion across US spot ETFs, indicating a defensive stance from institutions. The last period of consistent inflows occurred between April and July [4]. - Analysts suggest that a resurgence in ETF demand is crucial for a meaningful price rebound. A consistent inflow of $200–$300 million over several days could signal institutional interest returning to Bitcoin [5]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment for December appears muted, with expectations of a quieter month characterized by slow upward movement rather than volatility. Analysts do not foresee significant price jumps or drops [6]. - The combination of seasonal patterns and ETF flows suggests that December may remain cautious unless there is a sharp increase in ETF demand [7]. On-Chain Metrics - On-chain data indicates weak conviction among Bitcoin holders, with whales continuing to send coins to exchanges and long-term holders in distribution mode, which does not align with typical indicators of a confirmed bottom for December [8].