就业警报拉响！美国ISM制造业指数“九连缩”，降息大局已定？

Group 1 - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. has declined for the ninth consecutive month, with the manufacturing employment index contracting for ten months [1][2] - The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, indicating a continued contraction in the sector [2] - The new orders sub-index dropped to 47.4, while input costs for manufacturers increased, with the price index rising from 58.0 to 58.5 [2] Group 2 - 67% of survey participants indicated that controlling personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees, reflecting ongoing employment challenges in the manufacturing sector [2] - The manufacturing sector accounts for 10.1% of the U.S. economy, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while others like wood products and transportation equipment are contracting [2] - Manufacturers in the transportation equipment sector are linking layoffs to the broad tariff policies implemented by President Trump, indicating a shift towards more permanent adjustments [2][3] Group 3 - Chemical product manufacturers reported that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, primarily used in construction [3] - The business environment remains weak due to rising costs from tariffs, government shutdowns, and increased global uncertainty [3] - Economists believe that structural issues, such as labor shortages, are preventing the manufacturing sector from returning to previous levels of prosperity [3] Group 4 - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, economic data will be closely monitored, including the ISM services index and the ADP private employment report [4] - Recent data shows that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [4] - The Fed has already cut rates twice since September and may consider further cuts in the coming weeks, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point cut [4][5]