就业警报拉响！ISM制造业指数“九连缩” 降息大局已定？

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. has declined for the ninth consecutive month, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, indicating continued contraction [1][2] - The new orders index fell to 47.4, reflecting reduced demand due to tariffs increasing prices of certain goods [2] - Manufacturing employment has contracted for ten consecutive months, with 67% of survey participants indicating that managing personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Economic Conditions - Tariffs have led to increased production costs, with the prices index rising from 58.0 in October to 58.5 in November, further suppressing demand [2] - Some manufacturers are linking layoffs to the broad tariff policies implemented by President Trump, indicating a shift towards permanent adjustments in response to the current tariff environment [2][3] - The chemical products sector has reported that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in construction [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, there is speculation about potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in December [4][5] - Recent data shows that initial jobless claims have risen to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [4] - Economic analysts predict that further rate cuts may occur in 2026, with the terminal rate expected to fall to the range of 3.00%-3.25% [5]