Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese stocks, projecting a rise in A-share earnings growth from 6% in 2023 to 8% in 2026, driven by macroeconomic policies and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Growth and Market Outlook - UBS forecasts that the overall A-share earnings growth will increase to 8% by 2026, supported by improved nominal GDP growth and narrowing PPI declines [2]. - Morgan Stanley highlights that Chinese stocks have room for moderate upward movement, given stable valuations and mild earnings growth [1][4]. - The International Financial Association reports that foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024 [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Themes and Sector Preferences - Key investment themes for 2026 include technological self-reliance, consumer spending recovery, and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to enhance profit margins [3]. - Growth style is anticipated to outperform value style in the mid-term, while cyclical stocks may outperform defensive stocks due to improving industrial profits [3]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its target for the CSI 300 index to 4,840 points for December 2026, indicating a positive outlook for high-quality internet and technology stocks [5]. Group 3: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - Recent data shows significant inflows from both domestic and foreign investors, with foreign capital inflows of $2.257 billion and domestic inflows of $3.041 billion in the past week [5]. - Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have upgraded their ratings on Chinese stocks to "overweight," citing attractive entry points following recent market corrections and potential for strong performance driven by AI adoption and consumer stimulus [5][6].
外资巨头集体上调预期 中国股票“超配” 科技与消费成布局重点
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-12-02 00:17