Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-02 00:16Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the "AI bubble" has become an unavoidable topic in the market due to the increasing scale of AI investments and ambiguous investment returns [1] Group 1: AI Industry Outlook - The future of the AI industry is projected to have three possible scenarios over the next 12 months, with a 60% probability assigned to the baseline scenario of OpenAI facing operational difficulties and a slowdown in AI investment pace [1] - The other two hypothetical scenarios, which are short-term substantial breakthroughs in AI algorithms and a rebound in U.S. economic inflation leading to bubble bursts, are considered low probability events, each with a 20% likelihood [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Given the high uncertainty surrounding short-term AI technological advancements and macroeconomic expectations, the industry suggests that investors adopt a "wait and see" approach and consider "contrarian investing" as a fundamental strategy [1] - There is a recommendation to gradually increase the allocation weight towards the application side, specifically in internet and application software sectors [1]