中金12月行业配置策略：风格“高切低”过程不畅 成长相对占优

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments in November, with a decline in trading activity and a short-lived "high to low" style transition, while global stock markets saw widespread declines due to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over potential AI asset bubbles [1][2]. Market Overview - In November, the A-share market showed a decline in trading activity, with a brief "high to low" style transition that lacked clarity in its main themes, while dividends showed slight relative performance [2]. - Global stock markets faced declines, influenced by investors' changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and rising concerns about the sustainability of the current AI narrative [1][2]. Industry Performance Energy and Basic Materials - The "anti-involution" policy is advancing, leading to a divergence in demand between old and new economies, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace still under observation [3]. - Prices for various cyclical products showed mixed performance: coal prices rose by 6%, rebar by 1%, gold by 5%, copper by 3%, lithium carbonate by 16%, and neodymium oxide by 16%, while coking coal and iron ore prices fell by 17% and 1%, respectively [3]. Industrial Products - The domestic real estate chain remains weak, but emerging markets present significant opportunities, with a slowdown in price increases within the photovoltaic industry chain [4]. - In October, domestic excavator sales grew by 2% year-on-year, while export sales increased by 13% [4]. Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are struggling, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being gradually introduced [5]. - In October, sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners fell by 23%, 27%, and 24% year-on-year, respectively [5]. Technology - Continuous innovation in AI applications is observed, with domestic models progressing steadily, benefiting from expanded capital expenditures in computing power [6]. - In October, smartphone sales increased by 15% year-on-year, while sales of laptops and computer peripherals declined by 27% and 15%, respectively [6]. Financial Sector - Banks are attracting medium to long-term capital due to their high dividend yields, while stock market sentiment and activity have slightly decreased [7]. - In October, insurance industry premium income grew by 8% year-on-year, and total assets of insurance companies increased by approximately 16% year-on-year [7]. Real Estate - The focus remains on destocking and debt reduction, with significant policy support and demand improvement anticipated [8]. - In November, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 36% year-on-year, while the sales price index for new and second-hand residential properties dropped by 2.6% and 5.4%, respectively [8]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, domestic computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, with attention to sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and energy storage [8]. - Emerging markets are expected to see improved profit margins for export-oriented companies, particularly in sectors like electrical equipment and engineering machinery [8].