开源证券2026年度投资策略丨电新-风电:乘风而起,行业业绩与信心共振
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-02 00:39

Core Viewpoint - The wind power industry is expected to see significant growth in installed capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, driven by the dual carbon goals and the increasing preference for wind energy projects among developers [3][8]. Group 1: Domestic Wind Power Capacity Growth - The domestic wind power installed capacity is projected to reach new heights, with annual additions expected to be no less than 120GW during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including at least 15GW from offshore wind [3][8]. - In 2024, the domestic wind power installed capacity increased by 9.6% year-on-year to 86.99GW, with cumulative additions from 2021 to 2024 reaching 272.1GW, significantly higher than the 145.5GW added during the "13th Five-Year Plan" [8][22]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The land-based wind power market is showing signs of recovery from previous price wars, with average bidding prices for land-based wind turbines increasing by 13% in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the average price in 2024 [4][9]. - The offshore wind power sector has substantial growth potential, with a rich reserve of projects and a high level of bidding activity, indicating a robust market outlook [4][9]. Group 3: International Expansion and Demand - Global wind energy demand is on the rise, with the Global Wind Energy Council predicting a compound annual growth rate of 12.4% for land-based wind installations outside of China from 2025 to 2030, and 15.8% for offshore wind [4][10]. - Chinese wind turbine manufacturers are accelerating their international expansion, with a record 19.28GW of overseas orders secured by seven domestic manufacturers in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a shift from product export to localized production [4][10][56]. Group 4: Offshore Wind Power Development - The European offshore wind market is experiencing high demand, with a record 199GW of offshore wind projects approved in 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory for future installations [61][62]. - The domestic offshore wind projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong are progressing well, with significant capacities planned and ongoing construction, which is expected to enhance the overall offshore wind development landscape in China [38][40].