开源证券2026年度投资策略丨电新-锂电:动储需求旺盛,产业链供需拐点已至
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-02 00:47

Group 1 - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a supply-demand turning point driven by strong demand in power storage, consumer electronics, and electric vehicles [3][5][44] - The European electric vehicle market is recovering significantly, with new models and subsidy policies expected to accelerate growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026 [6][51][60] - The charging pile industry is seeing a rebound, with a "three-year doubling" action plan launched in October 2025, likely initiating a new investment cycle [7][49] Group 2 - Lithium battery installation volume in China reached 76.0 GWh in September 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81.8% of the total [11][21] - The demand for energy storage batteries is robust, with a total shipment of 165 GWh in Q3 2025, representing a 65% year-on-year growth [22][23] - The export of heat pumps to Europe is expected to bottom out in Q4 2024, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2025 [4][8] Group 3 - The European electric vehicle market saw a strong recovery in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total of 2.03 million units sold, a year-on-year increase of 30.2% [50][53] - Major automakers like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz are set to enter the production and delivery phase of new electric vehicle platforms in late 2025 [51][60] - The charging pile industry is projected to grow significantly due to supportive government policies and increasing infrastructure investments [7][49]