中信证券：玻璃行业下行周期步入尾声 底部机遇凸显

Industry Trends - The demand for float glass is resilient, supported by applications in the automotive and home appliance sectors, despite pressure from the real estate sector [1] - The industry is likely to enter a profit-upward phase in the next two years, with structural growth contributions from automotive glass and major appliances [1] - Float glass demand is closely related to construction completions, which are expected to remain under pressure in the next two years, but overall demand shows resilience due to stable needs in automotive and home appliances [1] Supply Side Dynamics - The probability of cold repairs for ultra-high kiln-age production lines is increasing, with 18.4% of current production capacity being over 9 years old [2] - The transition to natural gas as a fuel source is expected to improve glass quality, although it may lead to increased costs, providing potential price support [2] - Regulatory pressures are accelerating the exit of high-pollution and non-compliant production capacities, with potential idle capacity amounting to 10,450 tons/day, representing 7% of total capacity [2] Cycle Position - The industry is currently at a historical profit bottom, with most companies in a cash flow balance state and negative net profits [3] - The float glass industry has been in a down cycle for nearly two years, and is now at the tail end of this cycle, with prices nearing historical lows [3] - As of late November 2025, production lines using various fuels are operating at a loss, indicating a critical point for profitability in the industry [3] Valuation Levels - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is below the historical 10% threshold, reflecting a significant contraction in market capitalization since the real estate sector's downturn [4] - Major companies like Qibin Group, Xinyi Glass, and Nanbo have seen their market values decline by 78%, 69%, and 71% respectively since 2021, with current PB ratios at 1.2, 1.0, and 1.1x [4] - Share buybacks by these companies signal confidence in future growth and recognition of company value, which may also enhance employee motivation [4]