“十五五”钾肥内外发力保粮安——中国无机盐工业协会会长王孝峰一席谈

Core Viewpoint - The security of potassium fertilizer supply is crucial for national food security and agricultural resource supply, with the Chinese potassium fertilizer industry facing challenges of import dependence and resource endowment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Market Structure - The global potassium fertilizer market is highly concentrated, with Canada, Belarus, and Russia accounting for 70% to 80% of global exports, indicating that policy changes or geopolitical tensions in these countries could threaten global supply chain security [2] - Global potassium chloride prices have experienced fluctuations in 2024, characterized by low-level oscillation, collective increases, and subsequent high-level pullbacks, highlighting market uncertainty [2] Supply Chain Risks - Despite challenges in resource endowment, China's potassium fertilizer production reached 5.795 million tons in 2022, with a projected production of 5.25 million tons in 2024, but the country remains a net importer, with imports expected to reach 7.592 million tons, a 45.6% increase from the previous year [3] - The concentration of import sources is a significant issue, with Canada, Belarus, and Russia making up 75% of China's total potassium fertilizer imports, posing potential risks to the supply chain [3] - Domestic potassium fertilizer prices have shown volatility, with a peak price of 3,399 yuan/ton expected in July 2025, following a low of 2,178 yuan/ton in April 2024 [3] Strategic Layout - The Chinese potassium fertilizer industry has established a supply security strategy for the 14th Five-Year Plan, implementing a "3:3:3" strategy to optimize supply structure, aiming to shift from a current 4:5:1 ratio to a 3:4:3 ratio [4] - The strategy focuses on stabilizing existing production capacity, consolidating stable import channels, and expanding overseas base construction to ensure a steady supply [4] Technological Innovation - The potassium fertilizer industry has significant potential for technological innovation, particularly in resource utilization from complex salt lake compositions, which contain various underdeveloped valuable trace inorganic elements [5] - Industry experts emphasize the need for integrating smart technologies with salt lake development to overcome key technological bottlenecks, enhancing core competitiveness [5] - The implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to significantly improve the supply security capabilities of the potassium fertilizer industry, supporting national food security and promoting high-quality industry development [5]