瑞郎政策博弈下区间震荡格局

Group 1 - The Swiss economy experienced a contraction in Q3 2023, with GDP declining by 0.5%, marking the first negative growth since mid-2023, primarily due to a 39% tariff imposed by the US on Swiss goods, leading to weakened exports [1] - The Swiss economy's heavy reliance on the pharmaceutical sector is under pressure as US policies promote domestic production, potentially weakening Switzerland's current account surplus and support for the Swiss franc [1] - The recent data release on Swiss GDP did not significantly impact the USD/CHF exchange rate, indicating that the Swiss franc's safe-haven attributes continue to provide some support [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's November consensus statement abandoned the average inflation target, reverting to a traditional symmetric target with a clear long-term goal of 2% inflation, which has created a divergence in short-term employment stabilization efforts [2] - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a lack of clear direction, with recent trading around the 0.8000 level indicating a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments [2] - Market participants are advised to monitor the upcoming Swiss CPI data and the Federal Reserve's statements, as well as developments regarding US-Swiss tariffs, which could influence future exchange rate movements [2]