韩央行：产业重组为石化业长期发展奠定基础

Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of South Korea's petrochemical industry will exert downward pressure on economic growth in the short term, but long-term recovery in global demand and increased R&D investment can enhance competitiveness and lay the foundation for sustainable development [1][2] Industry Impact - The Bank of Korea projects that the restructuring will lead to a reduction in industrial output by up to 6.7 trillion KRW by 2026, affecting downstream industries [1] - As of 2023, the petrochemical industry accounts for 5.6% of South Korea's manufacturing output and 7.2% of its exports, contributing 2.2% of employment [1] - The industry has been facing continuous losses since 2022 due to global oversupply and weak demand, with operating profit margins plummeting from approximately 12% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022, and further declining to -0.1% in 2024 [1] Structural Challenges - The industry faces multiple structural challenges, including a high concentration of exports to the Chinese market and reliance on oil-based production routes, which limits its resilience [2] - Korean petrochemical companies are at a disadvantage in raw material costs compared to U.S. and Chinese competitors, who utilize ethane and coal-based facilities, respectively [2] - The shift towards green transformation and digitalization is increasing cost pressures on the industry [2] Government Initiatives - The South Korean government will promote voluntary restructuring of companies starting from August 2025, focusing on reducing petrochemical production capacity, particularly for cracking facilities [2] - The Bank of Korea emphasizes the importance of seizing the restructuring opportunity to enhance industry competitiveness despite the short-term growth losses [2] Future Outlook - The report predicts that if companies increase R&D investment by approximately 3.5% annually over the next three years, the short-term growth losses from restructuring could be fully compensated by 2029, potentially leading to excess returns [2] - Currently, companies like Lotte Chemical and Hyundai HD Chemical have submitted restructuring plans to integrate naphtha cracking facilities in the Daesan Industrial Complex, with other companies required to submit their plans by the end of 2025 [2]