己内酰胺价格触底反弹

Core Viewpoint - The caprolactam market has begun to rebound after hitting a five-year low price of 8050 yuan per ton in early November, driven primarily by self-imposed production cuts by companies to stabilize prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - On November 24, spot prices in East China rose to 8700 yuan, and by November 26, prices reached 9000 yuan, marking an increase of 950 yuan or 11.8% from the low point earlier in the month [1][5]. - The average production profit for caprolactam from January to October was -1557 yuan, with some companies facing losses exceeding 600 yuan in October [3]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's caprolactam industry has maintained a rapid growth rate, with production capacity expected to reach 6.94 million tons and output to 6.54 million tons by 2024 [2]. - Companies have voluntarily reduced production by 20% to manage supply and stabilize prices, with overall industry operating rates dropping to around 80% by November 20 [4][5]. Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The compound annual growth rate of caprolactam consumption over the past five years is 13.5%, with a projected demand growth of 28% in 2024, driven by the textile sector [2]. - Analysts predict a significant slowdown in demand growth in 2025, facing pressures from weak costs, subdued demand, and high inventory levels [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply-side dynamics remain favorable, with expectations that production cuts will continue into December, potentially tightening supply further [6]. - The recent global supply chain adjustments, including production cuts by Japanese companies, may present both challenges and opportunities for domestic firms [6].