钴供应危机持续，价格有望再上新台阶

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the new quota management system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will significantly restrict global cobalt supply, leading to a projected supply decrease to 200,000 tons by 2025, with further increases to 214,000 tons in 2026 and 216,000 tons in 2027 [1][2] - Global cobalt consumption is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projections of 221,000 tons in 2026 and 231,000 tons in 2027, indicating a rigid supply shortage for cobalt [1][2] - The DRC's new quota system has replaced the previous export ban, with annual export volumes expected to be less than 100,000 tons, including a base quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [2] Group 2 - The inventory of cobalt products is continuously being consumed across the entire supply chain, with significant reductions in cobalt intermediate stocks in China, dropping from 45,000 tons in May to 17,000 tons currently, resulting in a total reduction of 32,000 tons over five months [2] - Cobalt product prices have experienced a significant increase, with the average CIF price for cobalt intermediates in China rising from $5.95 per pound to $24.15 per pound, marking a 306% increase [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense is set to restart a $500 million cobalt procurement tender, marking the first large-scale cobalt purchase by the U.S. since the end of the Cold War, with the announcement expected in early February 2026 [3]