诺力股份(603611)首次覆盖报告:叉车业务大型化、电动化 智能场内物流龙头加速布局具身物流机器人

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leader in the intelligent manufacturing equipment and smart logistics systems industry, established in 2000 and listed in 2015, with a focus on intelligent manufacturing equipment and smart logistics systems [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The core product lines of intelligent manufacturing equipment include a full range of industrial vehicles, fork-type AGVs, and embodied intelligent robots [1] - The smart logistics systems business provides customized and intelligent internal logistics solutions by integrating logistics management software with various logistics equipment [1] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of over 31% since 2020, with a projected dividend rate of 50.02% and a dividend yield of 5.00% for 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The trend towards electric forklifts is clear, with sales growth in China exceeding 18% over the past two years, and the company aims to capture 45% of the EU market and 35% of the global market for light and small vehicles by October 2025 [2] - The company’s large electric forklift strategy has shown significant results, with a projected additional profit of 300 million yuan after the completion of the fifth smart factory, which will have a capacity of 50,000 vehicles [2] Group 3: Revenue Projections - Revenue from the company's new energy intelligent logistics solutions is expected to grow from 1.306 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.635 billion yuan in 2029, with a CAGR of 14.7% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - The company’s subsidiary, Zhongding Intelligent, is expected to contribute to revenue growth, with a combined revenue of 3.225 billion yuan in 2024 [3] Group 4: Innovation and R&D - The company has established a joint laboratory for embodied intelligent logistics robots with Zhejiang University, addressing the increasing demand for flexibility in the logistics industry [4] - The "Nobor II" embodied intelligent robot was launched in August 2025, targeting high-risk industrial applications, and has already secured development and procurement agreements with quality clients [4] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the electric forklift trend and the growing demand for new energy intelligent logistics systems, with expectations for revenue growth of 7.326 billion yuan in 2025, 8.054 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.006 billion yuan in 2027 [5] - Projected net profits are 511 million yuan in 2025, 609 million yuan in 2026, and 729 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.98, 2.36, and 2.83 yuan [5]