白银，冲高回落！今年以来接近翻倍

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced a significant increase this year, with a rise of over 97%, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global supply tightness [1][9]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 1, the spot price of silver reached a historical high of $58.84 per ounce, with COMEX silver futures hitting $59.435 per ounce [2][10]. - On December 2, silver prices quickly retreated below $57 per ounce, fluctuating between $56.79 and $57.39, marking a nearly 2% drop from the previous day's high [11]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut now at 86.5%, up from 63% at the end of October [3][12]. - Weak U.S. economic data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have accelerated these expectations, with analysts noting that investors are positioning for a more accommodative monetary policy [3][12]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The silver market is currently experiencing liquidity expectations and a tight physical supply, with rising net exports from China and a return of domestic and U.S. silver inventories to Europe, leading to a temporary decline in global stocks [4][13]. - The Silver Institute's 2025 World Silver Survey indicates a continuous decline in mining output over the past decade, particularly in Central and South America, while industrial demand has steadily increased from nearly 31,000 tons in 2016 to over 36,000 tons projected for 2024 [4][13]. Group 4: Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio has narrowed significantly, with the current ratio at approximately 73, meaning 73 ounces of silver can purchase 1 ounce of gold, down from 89 in late August [5][14]. - Silver's unique position as both a precious and industrial metal has contributed to its price dynamics, with increased physical purchases from India, the world's largest silver consumer, further driving prices up [5][14].