【财经分析】11月央行购债存悬念：200亿仅是序曲？机构激辩“买多少”与债市走向

Core Viewpoint - The recent bond market fluctuations are influenced by the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) bond purchasing activities, with various institutions predicting differing scales for November's bond purchases, reflecting diverse interpretations of the central bank's monetary policy logic [1][2][3]. Group 1: Predictions on Bond Purchase Scale - Institutions have varying predictions for the PBOC's bond purchase scale in November, categorized as conservative, moderate, and aggressive, indicating different understandings of the central bank's monetary policy [2]. - A cautious perspective suggests that while the October net purchase of 20 billion yuan was small, the average daily purchase of 5 billion yuan over four trading days is significant, leading to expectations that November's net purchases will exceed October's but maintain a careful pace [2][3]. - Some analysts believe that the scale of bond purchases will depend on changes in bond yields, with potential adjustments based on whether yields decline too quickly or remain stable [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Liquidity - The liquidity gap in November is estimated at around 2 trillion yuan, with the PBOC likely using bond transactions to maintain the DR007 rate within the 1.4-1.5% range [3]. - The current holdings of the PBOC account for about 6% of the total bond market, indicating room for expansion compared to developed countries [3]. - Analysts suggest that the resumption of bond purchases could act as a substitute for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, with a significant number of market institutions expecting a lower probability of RRR cuts in the fourth quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions to Purchase Scenarios - Different scenarios for bond purchase scales could lead to varied market outcomes, with small-scale purchases (200-500 billion yuan) signaling a steady policy and keeping yields within the 1.75%-1.85% range [5]. - Medium-scale purchases (500-1000 billion yuan) could create downward pressure on yields, potentially lowering them to the 1.7%-1.75% range, while larger purchases (over 1000 billion yuan) might significantly alter market supply and demand dynamics [5][6]. - The bond market has shown increased sensitivity to negative factors since November, which may be linked to upcoming regulatory changes affecting fund sales [6]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Strategy Adjustments - A bond fund manager noted that the October purchase of 20 billion yuan was more symbolic than impactful, emphasizing the need for clarity on the central bank's medium to long-term operational framework [7]. - As year-end liquidity demands rise, the bond market is becoming increasingly tense, with upcoming data expected to clarify the ongoing dynamics [7].