Core Insights - The current focus for many investors is whether it is the right time to bottom-fish in the high-end liquor market, particularly in the baijiu sector [1][2] Demand Cycle - The demand cycle for high-end liquor is currently in a downward trend, influenced by macroeconomic slowdowns and a shrinking high-end dining sector [9][11] Inventory Cycle - The industry is still in the process of destocking, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye yet to complete their inventory optimization [8][9] Valuation Cycle - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the baijiu sector has decreased from previously high levels of 60-70 times to around 20 times, indicating a return to normal valuation but not yet reaching a clearly undervalued state [9][10] Case Study: Yanghe - Yanghe's recent performance serves as a cautionary example; despite a high dividend yield and low P/E ratio attracting investors, its earnings significantly declined, reflecting ongoing issues in demand and inventory adjustments within the industry [10][11]
茅台“猎手”董宝珍预警：周期未到底，白酒还没到抄底时刻！
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-02 06:20