QT结束叠加美联储鸽派立场!“华尔街神算子”乐观展望：标普500年底前剑指7300点新高

Group 1: Market Outlook - Tom Lee from Fundstrat predicts a strong performance for US stocks in December, with the S&P 500 potentially rising to 7300 points by year-end, indicating a 10% increase from current levels [1] - Despite a poor start to December with a 0.53% drop in the S&P 500, Lee remains optimistic, attributing potential market gains to the end of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve [1] - Lee draws parallels to September 2019, when the S&P 500 rose over 17% within three weeks after the end of quantitative tightening [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The volatility in November led to a healthy reset of positions among fund managers, aligning with Goldman Sachs' view that the market is entering December with a clearer structure [2] - Goldman Sachs noted a significant improvement in market breadth, with the S&P 500's breadth indicator rebounding from -150 to +150, indicating a broader market participation [2] - The "volatility fear index" from Goldman Sachs also showed a similar trend, currently at around 5, slightly above its three-year average [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - Lee believes that the Federal Reserve's dovish stance will continue to support both stock and cryptocurrency markets, with major indices showing significant gains last week [3] - The anticipation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key driver for market sentiment returning to a risk-on mode [3] - Lee emphasizes that if the Federal Reserve maintains its dovish position, it will serve as a substantial market catalyst [4] Group 4: Long-term Projections - Major Wall Street firms have set optimistic targets for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, with JPMorgan forecasting 7500 points and potential for 8000 points if rate cuts continue [5] - Morgan Stanley also shares a bullish outlook, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 7800 points, citing the end of the recent market sell-off as a good opportunity for positioning [5] - Deutsche Bank anticipates a 14% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500, driven by AI-related growth spreading beyond major tech stocks [6] Group 5: AI and Earnings Growth - The investment wave in artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a significant factor supporting the bullish outlook for US stocks, with expectations of strong earnings growth [6] - UBS projects that the AI-driven market rally will continue into 2026, with a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, underpinned by robust corporate earnings [6] - HSBC also sets a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, expecting a 12% growth in earnings per share driven by macroeconomic stability and AI investment [7]