China Vanke Seeks One Year Delay to Pay Bond

Core Insights - The liquidity strains faced by bankers are severe, with a one-year delay in payments being worse than investor expectations, particularly with over ¥3 billion due in late December [1][2] - Vancouver is facing over $30 billion in payments due by the end of next June, raising concerns about potential contagion effects similar to those seen with Evergrande [2][4] - The failure of Banker, a state-backed developer, raises questions about the safety of state-backed developers and could shift homebuyer confidence [4][5] Company and Industry Analysis - The sales of state-owned developers have decreased by 9% this year, while private developers have seen a 29% decline, indicating a significant impact on the market [5] - The situation with Banker, which has ties to Shenzhen Metro, a state-owned entity, may serve as a tipping point for the market, potentially affecting perceptions of state-backed developers [6][10] - Bondholders are closely monitoring the situation, with offshore bondholders holding over $1.3 billion in notes, indicating a heightened level of scrutiny and concern [8][9] - The Chinese government has intervened by instructing data providers to withhold key home sales data, likely to manage the narrative around homebuyer confidence [11][12] - Predictions indicate a 30% year-over-year decline in November home sales data, with expectations of continued steep declines into December, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market [14][15]