印度卢比兑美元逼近重要心理关口90 印美贸易僵局带来冲击

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has reached record lows this year, with analysts warning that it could fall to the psychological level of 90 against the US Dollar if a key trade agreement with the US is not reached soon [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The Rupee hit a record low of 89.92 against the US Dollar, further depreciating to 90.13 in offshore markets, primarily due to the lack of a trade agreement with the US impacting market confidence [1][4]. - The Rupee has depreciated by 4.8% this year, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The delay in reaching a trade agreement has led to an expansion of India's current account deficit in Q3, putting additional pressure on the currency [1][4]. - Foreign investors have withdrawn $16 billion from Indian equities this year, and the continued depreciation of the Rupee may deter further investment and exacerbate inflationary pressures in this fuel-importing country [3][6]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its dollar sales to stabilize market fluctuations, but analysts suggest that if a trade agreement is not reached, the RBI may be reluctant to use excessive foreign reserves to prevent the Rupee from breaching the 90 mark [3][6]. - Compared to significant dollar sales conducted in October to support the currency around the 89 mark, recent interventions by the RBI have been sporadic [3][6].