伊朗装置停车导致到港量下滑 甲醇震荡偏强运行

News Summary - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to various operational statuses of production facilities and inventory levels, with expectations of price rebounds but also underlying supply pressures. Group 1: Market Conditions - South American MHTL methanol facility is underperforming, while Koch's 1.7 million tons/year and Natgasoline's 1.75 million tons/year methanol facilities in North America are operating normally [1] - As of November 27, coastal methanol inventory stands at 1.514 million tons, down by 94,500 tons (5.88%) from November 20, but up 29.68% year-on-year [1] - China's methanol production for the week of November 21-27 was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.09%, up 0.37% week-on-week [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the shutdown of Iranian facilities has led to a decrease in port arrivals, while high load at East China MTO facilities is expected to reduce port inventory, leading to a rebound in methanol prices; however, downstream polyolefin prices may not rise significantly, indicating a price ceiling for methanol [2] - Yide Futures notes that with the anticipated resumption of operations at Jiutai on December 1, and the impact of Iranian gas restrictions and concentrated downstream procurement, coastal prices have stopped falling and rebounded; however, high domestic supply and port inventory continue to exert pressure on the market [2] - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance may weaken in December due to planned maintenance at Iranian facilities and Ningbo Fude MTO, with a significant decrease in import arrivals expected in late December or January [2]