屠宰量增加、毛白价差拉大 预计12月生猪屠宰毛利或有继续上涨可能

Core Viewpoint - In November, the fluctuation in live pig prices and the improvement in pork demand led to a slight recovery in slaughtering profits, with expectations for further increases in December [1][6]. Group 1: Slaughtering Profit Analysis - As of November 28, the slaughtering profit for live pigs was 43.97 yuan per head, an increase of 11.85 yuan per head from the end of October, representing a growth of 36.89%. However, the average for the month was only 38.28 yuan per head, a decrease of 2.93% month-on-month, but an increase of 53.25% year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in the sales of pork products was a key factor driving the increase in slaughtering profits [1]. Group 2: Price Movements - The decline in meat prices was smaller than the decrease in pig prices, leading to an expanded price difference that supported the rise in slaughtering profits. By the end of November, the national white meat price was 14.72 yuan per kilogram, down 7.23% from the end of October, while the average trading price of live pigs was 11.11 yuan per kilogram, down 10.69% [3]. - The average price of white meat in November was 15.15 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month increase of 0.40 yuan, or 2.73%, while the average price of live pigs was 11.59 yuan per kilogram, a slight increase of 0.07 yuan, or 0.60% [3]. Group 3: Slaughtering Volume Trends - In November, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs showed a fluctuating increase, with an average daily slaughter volume up 1.27% compared to October, and a cumulative increase of 6.97% from the end of October [4]. - The first half of November saw limited growth in slaughter demand, but the situation improved in the second half of the month as temperatures dropped, leading to better sales of pork products and an increase in slaughter volume [4]. Group 4: Outlook for December - Looking ahead to December, historical patterns and current stocking conditions suggest that slaughter volumes may reach their highest peak outside of the Spring Festival, with operational rates expected to increase by 10-15 percentage points compared to the beginning of the month [6]. - The anticipated increase in terminal market demand and improved sales of white meat are expected to widen the price gap with live pig prices, enhancing profit margins for slaughtering [6].